Thursday, August 28, 2008

south carolina VS. NC STATE PREVIEW

Okay, folks, the big day has arrived. You know that old adage, "It's never as good as it seems, and it's never as bad as it seems?" Well I can't think of a more apropos way of describing tonight's match up between the Wolfpack and the gamecocks. As you've seen this week, most gamecock fans are expecting to pummel the Wolfpack tonight, to take them behind the proverbial woodshed. They believe their defense is the best in America. They also believe that NC State has the worst offense in America. Now I know that a lot of you are pretty stupid, especially the Virginia Tech fan, and can't remember as far back as last week, but what we've seen this week is almost an exact replica of the talk we heard from gamecock fans before their matchup with North Carolina last year. They were gonna pound a weak ACC team, and win by 40, and show the ACC how dominant the SEC really was. Of course, as any rational person expected, it was a really close game that the gamecocks were lucky to win. Now I'm not going to sit here and tell you that south carolina's defense isn't good(it isn't good). And I'm not going to sit here and tell you that NC State's offense is really good. But I am going to tell you that South Carolina fans will not be happy with the outcome of tonight's game, and I'm going to tell you why.

When NC State has the ball:

The Wolfpack are not an offensive juggernaut. They have question marks at virtually every position on the offensive side of the ball. Tom O'Brien has elected to go with redshirt freshman Russell Wilson in lieu of senior Daniel Evans(wolfpack fans rejoice). Wilson brings with his game a howitzer of an arm, and pretty decent mobility. This should create a tougher match up than expected for the gamecock front 7, considering they are one of the nation's worst against the run. Gamecock fans, I'm telling you, don't expect it to be much better this year. State also has a highly capable running back in Andre Brown, although it's been a while since he saw action. This brings me to what I feel could be their biggest advantage: the offensive line. Teams expecting to dominate an O'Brien coached offensive line always get the shock of a lifetime. These guys are big, fast, and disciplined. I fully expect them to give the gamecock DL everything they can handle and more. And they better, because I don't think the Wolfpack will be very successful through the air tonight. south carolina does have a decent secondary, although it is vastly overrated because of skewed statistics. Teams didn't need to throw against them last year because their front 7 was weaker than melted Swiss cheese. Nevertheless, NC State doesn't have a proven playmaker at the WR position, and nobody really knows how Wilson will fare in the passing aspect of the game. I expect the gamecocks to stack the box tonight, and make Wilson prove he can beat them through the air. There are always some surprises on opening day, but I don't think the Pack aerial attack is going to be one of them. Bottom line: This will be a stoppable force battling a movable object. Advantage - south carolina, but only slightly

When South Carolina has the ball:

South Carolina sucks on offense. Their quarterback is garbage. He almost transferred last year because he couldn't get any playing time behind Blake Mitchell and Chris Smelley. Take a moment and ponder that. He won this year's starting job by default, and it will show tonight. They aren't any better at running back. Mike Davis, at one time, showed some potential, but he is pretty much a non-factor these days, as he gives very little effort and has trouble holding on to the footbaw. Taylor Rank is the starter tonight. Are you freaking kidding me? You can't see it right now, but I'm laughing. The offensive line is also a huge pile of shit. As late as yesterday, Spurrier still didn't know what his starting 5 was going to be. This is the same old story every year out of Columbia. NC State's offense won't light it up tonight, but neither will South Carolina's. Degenerate sinners, take out a 2nd mortgage and take the under. NC State doesn't return very many players on the defensive side of the ball, but that may end up being a blessing in disguise, as the '07 version was.......not good. The DL lost virtually everyone, but playing against such a crap rushing offense as south carolina, I don't think it will show too much. The linebackers are going to be bad. There is no way to sugarcoat it. If South Carolina is really going to exploit the Pack defense, it will be with short to intermediate stuff over the middle of the field. The secondary is a question mark, but not as much as the LB corp. Since South Carolina has only 1 good wideout, look for State's safeties to come over top and try and take some pressure off the linebackers. Bottom line: NC State's defense is questionable, but no moreso than south carolina's offense. Advantage - push

When both teams suck and have to kick: South Carolina fans think ST coach, Ray Rychleski, is the second coming of Jesus Christ. Ask them, South Carolina will lead the nation in every special teams category imaginable. Joke. They suck. I fully expect NC State to make a game-changing play on special teams tonight.

Coaching matchup: Steve Spurrier is a (former)legend. Tom O'Brien isn't. But that doesn't mean that this contest is a fore drawn conclusion. O'Brien's teams play about as disciplined a game as any team in America. This is his second year, and the mistakes of last year are just that, a thing of the past. Spurrier is a has-been, hellbent on ruining his reputation as one of the game's best. His advantage tonight, if any, is minimal.

Final Prediction: As I mentioned earlier, South Carolina fans expecting a 30 point blowout are in for a rude awakening. The gamecocks are notorious for looking like farm animal afterbirth in season openers. They are a slightly better football team than NC State right now, just as they were a slightly better team than North Carolina last year. The home crowd will not be any advantage, since it's a Thursday night and the stadium won't be full. Besides, it's one of the quietest stadiums I've ever been in when things aren't going well. Expect a lot of sloppy play from both teams. South Carolina wins in a squeaker: 13-10.

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

Superb breakdown. Well done. I hope they somehow tie and the stadium gets destroyed by some act of God. We'd all be better off.

SEC SPURRIERS #1!!!! said...

Hilarious, but more importantly it's all true. The only thin you left out is the fact that NC State may be the WORST ACC TEAM this season. They are a disaster, but O'brien can fix them (just not this year). Of course, the above mentioned means that USCjr should win by 35 plus. Why, bc the SEC Spurriers can beat ANY ACC team...ha!

Unknown said...

Wilford, the diabetiss (sic) must be affecting your thought process.

Anonymous said...

Stern, stern but fair.

Unknown said...

Spot on analysis. Although I have found that swiss is a relatively elastic cheese under melting conditions.

Anonymous said...

au contraire, the diabeedus has only made stronger.

Anonymous said...

+1 for your "footbaw" reference.